China is India’s largest source of imports with $70 billion worth of products reaching Indian markets from Chinese shores. From $41 billion in 2010, the imports have grown by 1.8X in 9 years. The country was also India’s third-largest export destination with outbound shipments valued at $16.5 billion. Massive Chinese imports have undermined capacity utilization, technological advancement and dented CAPEX. Markets for electronics, electrical goods, solar panels, chemicals, bulk drugs, metals, furniture, many household/gifts items, toys, footwear, hardware, tiles, automobile components, tires, bicycle parts, bearings, and machinery are dominated by Chinese products. Make-in-India is swamped by Made-in-China. Despite this, a significant share of Indian importers across a broad range of sectors has continued to rely on regular trips to manufacturing hubs in China to place orders for products. With these visits now called off, importers fear they would lose out once the situation normalizes and importers from other nations scramble to call in their own orders. Chinese imports have led to the closure of many businesses, switching from manufacturing to trading and over-dependence on Chinese inputs.

Post COVID-19, that World will have to move towards the new normal. In this new normal, Globalization template will have to be relooked at. This not only in India and worldwide, as a result it’s a mega opportunity for Indian companies to not only move towards creating redundancies but also to reduce reliance on imports and focus on large scale indigenization, this to be able to play a key role in the imminent major reshuffle of the global supply chain. COVID-19 completely decimated the critical mass of value chains that have built up in China. According to experts, large volumes of manufacturers are experiencing supply problems due to the outbreak, with companies increasing the use of ‘force majeure’ a contract law which refers to exceptional events which prevent or hinder the performance of an obligation.

As Worldwide, companies look to diversify their strategy when it comes to sourcing, India stands to gain from this move which will break the concentrated supply chain mold to spread out supply chain mold in the best possible efficient and effective manner. India stands to gain in this wave of supply chain re-construction after COVID-19 led de-construction. InfraInsights research report “Import Substitution by Indigenization, Progressively as Overnight is Not Possible: Evaluating Opportunity amidst the COVID-19 triggered Global Supply Chain Chaos”, aims to provide a detailed view on a) What China exports to the world? b) What India imports from China c) What India can indigenize under Make in India? d) What India cannot indigenize under Make in India. Post COVID-19 is an opportunity for India to scale up its Make in India program under the premise of Decentralized Supply Chain World.

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Approach & Methodology
  3. Impact of COVID-19 [Scenario Analysis]
    1. Impact on Economy
    2. Impact on Sectors
    3. Impact on Capital Availability
    4. Impact on Discretionary Spending
  4. Overview of Chinese Imports in India
    1. By Value
    2. By Volume
    3. By Ports
    4. By Commodity
    5. By Sector
  5. Overview on Chinese Exports to the World
    1. By Country
    2. By Commodity
    3. By Sector
  6. China – India Trade Agreement Contours
  7. Commodity Wise Imports from China in India
    1. Coverage of Commodity by Industry
      1. Telecom
      2. Machinery / Equipment
      3. Automotive Components
      4. Minerals
      5. Precious Metals
      6. Steel
      7. Cement
      8. Pharma
      9. Electronics
      10. Electrical Goods
      11. Pipes
      12. White Goods
      13. Bearings
      14. Textile
      15. Lighting
      16. Others
    2. Import Value & Volume
    3. Port wise Imports in India
    4. Respective Commodity local manufacturing / supply capability
    5. Trigger for imports
      1. Locally not manufactured
      2. Price Competitiveness
      3. Supply Agility
      4. Others
    6. Make in India – Possible
      1. Possible Scenario
      2. Not Possible Scenario
  8. Potential for India to be an alternative to China
    1. Optimistic
    2. Pessimistic
    3. Realistic
  9. Chinese Companies Presence in India
    1. Sector-wise
    2. The proportion in M&A trade deals
    3. Investments in India
  10. InfraInsights detailed analysis on
    1. Commodity to focus on indigenization
    2. Commodity to focus on for the export opportunity
  11. InfraInsights ViewPoint: Can India Become an Alternative to China
  12. Improving Manufacturing Sector Attractiveness in India
    1. Policies
    2. FDI Since Corporate Tax Cuts
    3. Private Sector Investment
    4. Cost of Power
    5. Credit Cost
  13. Government Push for Indigenization & Initiatives taken
    1. Lower Tax Rates
    2. Investment in Infrastructure
      1. Roads, Ports, Logistics
    3. Access to raw materials
    4. Land Availability
    5. Focus on SMBs
  14. Factors that make India in Sweet Spot
    1. Geo-political factors
    2. US-China Trade Deal Contention
  15. Competition from India
    1. Indonesia
    2. Vietnam
  16. Lessons from China Case Study
    1. Scale
    2. Labour Laws
    3. Agile Manufacturing
    4. Cost of Manufacturing
    5. Creation of SEZs
    6. Industrial Clusters

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